A Population and Economic Analysis of the Asheville Metropolitan Area and the Western North Carolina Region That It Serves

May, 1966
Price $5.00

INTRODUCTION
FOREWARD, PREFACE, AND GEOGRAPHICAL SETTING

P
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E

prepared for

THE CITY OF ASHEVILLE AND BUNCOMBE COUNTY

TABLE OF CONTENTS

FOREWARD

     This report is one of a series prepared by the Asheville-Buncombe Metropolitan Planning Board with technical assistance provided by the Western North Carolina Regional Planning Commission.
     The purpose of a Population and Economic study is to provide governmental, quasi-governmental, and civic organizations with a knowledgeable foundation upon which to base decisions relating to the future growth and development of the area. This is accomplished by bringing to light facts and trends which are relevant to growth and development, with special emphasis given to existing strengths and deficiencies, including forecasts as to what to expect in the future.
     In pursuance of this endeavor, individuals, business and manufacturing establishments, and governmental agencies too numerous to enumerate were of invaluable assistance. In addition to empirical data obtained from dozens of governmental agencies, over 500 contacts were made locally. These contacts included manufacturing plants, finance, insurance and real estate firms, wholesale and distribution firms, retail establishments, educational institutions, public utilities, industrial and commercial development officials, local government officials, and many others. To all of these go our thanks and appreciation.

PREFACE

All areas, whether they are towns, cities, metropolitan areas, or what have you, owe their existence to some type or types of economic activity. Some are centers of trade and commerce, other manufacturing, others governments, and some are a combination of several activities, and so on.
     In addition, each has an area over which it exercises varying degrees of influence. For some, this area of influence is very slight and for others, such as Metropolitan Areas, very extensive.
     In order to properly analyze the population and economy of a particular locale, the nature of the area's economic functions and the area of its influence must first be understood and delineated. Simply speaking, this means if an area, that is Metropolitan Asheville, serves as a regional center, the entire region served must be studied if a clear understanding is to be gained. Consequently, an analysis of Metropolitan Asheville, if it is to be accurate and comprehensive, must also include an analysis of the entire area it serves.
     With this in mind, preliminary investigation was made in order to determine the economic base upon which Metropolitan Asheville is dependent. In addition to purely local activities, e.g. manufacturing, evidence indicated that Metropolitan Asheville

GEOGRAPHICAL SETTING

National

     The Asheville Metropolitan Area is strategically located within twenty-four hours of sixty percent of the Nation's population by rail or highway, four hours by air, and nearly equidistant from New York, Chicago, St. Louis, New Orleans, and Jacksonville.
     In the past, the region's transportation system of getting to and from the various markets has been very poor and subsequently has prevented the region from fully utilizing the excellent opportunities afforded by its geographical location. This, however, is rapidly changing. The new, modern airport made possible by the bond issue voted by the citizens of Asheville, the completion of the interstate system in the near future, the developmental highway to be constructed under the Appalachian Bill, extension of the

Regional

     The Asheville Metropolitan Area is part of a large fertile plateau lying between the Blue Ridge and Great Smoky Mountains. Due to its geographical location it serves as the natural center or "Hub" for the Western North Carolina Region. Metropolitan Asheville and the other Upper French Broad Counties of Henderson, Haywood, Transylvania and Madison possess rugged mountains, but also sizeable but varying amounts of reasonably flat land, and as a consequence have the most advanced economy and the greatest concentration of urban economic activities. In contrast, the counties to the West and North of the Upper French Broad Basin are generally characterized by high, rugged mountain ranges and little, if any, expanses of flat land. As a result, economic development in these counties is far behind that of the Upper French Broad Counties -- particularly Metropolitan Asheville. The remaining counties of the Region lie East of Metropolitan Asheville and are partially mountainous and partially plateau. To a large extent, they are oriented toward

[map:  "National Setting"]

[map:  "Regional Setting"]

POPULATION

1

GROWTH TRENDS

General

     In contrast to the State, the growth of the City of Asheville and Metropolitan Asheville has been very erratic. From 1900 to 1930, both grew very rapidly as Asheville developed into one of the Nation's major resort and retirement centers -- particularly between 1920 and 1930; however, following the depression, growth in both declined.
     In the city, the population increased by approximately 35,000 person from 1900 to 1930; however, it has increased by slightly less than 14,000 persons since 1930. Between 1930 and 1950, the population was almost static, increasing by only 2,800 persons; since then, however, growth has again begun to accelerate. From 1950 to 1960, more than 7,000 persons were added, and it is estimated that an additional 3,600 had been added by December 31, 1964.
     The growth trends of the Metropolitan Area are very similar to those of the city. From 1900 to 1930, the population increased by approximately 53,000 persons; however, it has increased by only approximately 38,500 persons since then. From 1930

[table:  "Population Change 1900-1965"]

[graph:  "Growth Patterns for Selected Areas 1900-1965"]
[graph:  "Asheville, Metropolitan Asheville, and W.N.C. Population as a Percent of North Carolina's Population 1900-1965"]

[chart:  "Population Estimates for North Carolina Metropolitan Areas 1965"]

½ that of Metropolitan Durham and Metropolitan Winston Salem -- the next lowest -- and approximately 1/7 that of Metropolitan Charlotte -- the fastest growing. Between 1960 and 1965, however, Metropolitan Asheville, with an annual average growth rate of 1.4 percent, was only slightly behind the next two -- Metropolitan Durham at 1.6 percent and Metropolitan Winston Salem at 1.7 percent; and the leader -- Metropolitan Raleigh -- grew at only 2½ times the rate of Metropolitan Asheville.
     From 1950 to 1960, growth in Metropolitan Asheville was more characteristic of a small or medium size town than of the Metropolitan Area; however, since 1960, it has been growing more as would be expected. In explanation, the large increase in growth is no doubt a reflection and the result of the tremendous growth and expansion of employment opportunities in the last several years.

Projected Population

     Chart 3 illustrates the projected population for Metropolitan Asheville and the City of Asheville. A projection is not a prediction but an estimate based upon known trends and the assumption that these trends will continue in the future.
     Actually, the projected population for the Metropolitan Area is likely to be more accurate than the one for the City. This is so because regardless of population growth in the Metropolitan Area, to a major extent, the growth of the City will be   

determined by annexation policies. By and large, most population growth is occurring and will continue to occur in the area outside the corporate limits of Asheville. The extent to which Asheville increases in population is closely related to the extent to which Asheville annexes these areas. The projections shown for the City are based upon ratios of City to Metropolitan population over the decades and the assumption that these ratios will continue in the future.
     Unlike many previous projections, these shown reflect growth trends since the 1960 Census of Population, and subsequently are generally larger than those previously published. It is impossible to determine whether National and Local trends will continue in the future, and it is also impossible to determine the extent to which the new road construction will further stimulate growth and development; however, projections are useful in that they do provide some guidelines for planning by illustrating what the population will be if it continues to grow in the future as it has in the past.
     As shown, substantial growth is anticipated in both Metropolitan Asheville and the City of Asheville. From 1960 to 1980, the population of the Metropolitan Area is anticipated to increase by approximately 51 percent, representing a gain of approximately 66,000 persons; and the population of the City is projected to increase by approximately 43.0 percent, representing a gain of some 26,000 persons. 

MIGRATION

General Trends

     A technique frequently used for analyzing the migration pattern of a given locale is to calculate the natural population increase during the decade (total births minus total deaths), add the increase to the base period, and then compare the results with the actual population. If the actual population exceeds the expected population, in-migration has occurred; but if the actual population is less than the expected population, out-migration has taken place. Table 2 is computed by this method and provides a comparison of trends for the City of Asheville, Metropolitan Asheville, Western North Carolina, and the State.
     As shown, during the decade the City had a net loss of approximately 4,400 persons due to out-migration, the Metropolitan Area approximately 10,000 persons, and the Western North Carolina Region over 71,000 persons. In the Western North Carolina Region, one person left for every 8.3 that remained; in Asheville one left for every 14.7 that remained; and in Metropolitan Asheville one left for every 14 persons that remained. In comparison, all three areas had a heavier out-migration than the State, where one left for every 16.6 persons that remained. Out-migration in Western North Carolina was particularly heavy, accounting for almost ¼ of the total State out-migration, but for only 12.8 percent of the State's population in 1950. In fact, the incidence of out-migration in Western North Carolina was double that of the State and is responsible for the decline in Western North Carolina's proportionate share of the State's population.

Migration by Age and Sex

     It is not sufficient to know only that out-migration has occurred, but it is necessary, as well, to determine the age and sex of those who left. This is accomplished by observing the number of persons present in a given age group during the base year, and

[table:  "Net Migration, 1950-1960"]

[table:  "Migration Trends -- For Asheville SMSA & W.N.C. 1950-1960 & 1960-1965]

CHARACTERISTICS AND COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION

By Residence

     Over half of the population of Metropolitan Asheville is urban, and like the State almost 40 percent is rural non-farm. In contrast, slightly less than 25 percent of the residents of the Western North Carolina Region live in urban areas and approximately 59 percent live in rural non-farm areas. Like the State, approximately 17 percent live in rural areas.
     However, in both Metropolitan Asheville and particularly Western North Carolina, the type of residence is changing. As shown by Chart 5, in both Metropolitan

Asheville and the City of Asheville, rural residence declined sharply from 1950 to 1960. In Western North Carolina, urban population increased only slightly; however, rural non-farm population increased by nearly 53.0 percent. In Metropolitan Asheville, both urban and rural non-farm residence increased only slightly, but this is primarily attributable to the fact that the vast majority of Metropolitan Asheville's population was already either urban or rural non-farm in 1950, plus the fact that the population increased only slightly during the decade. This change in residence is a reflection of the rapid decline of Agriculture, and it is likely to continue for many years to come.

By Sex

     In Metropolitan Asheville, the City of Asheville, and Western North Carolina, females were more numerous than males in both 1950 and 1960. In addition, in all but the City, the proportion of the population female was greater in 1960 than 1950. This is likely attributable to the combination of more female births, a longer life span for females, and a greater propensity on the part of males to out-migrate.

[table:  "Percent Distribution of the Population by Sex 1950 & 1960"]

     In both the Western North Carolina Region and Metropolitan Asheville, the percentage of the population that is non-white is far below the State average of 26.6 percent, and in the City of Asheville appreciably below. Generally speak­ing, the non-white population of Metropolitan Asheville is concentrated in the City where the proportion of non-whites is almost double that of the total Metropolitan Area and triple that of the Region. Moreover, between 1950 and 1960 in the City, Metropolitan Area, and the Region, the proportion of non-whites declined. This is largely attributable to out-migration resulting from insufficient employment oppor­tunity. It is likely, however, that in the last several years non-white out-migration has been reduced somewhat due to an expansion of employment opportunities for them, and consequently the racial composition of the population may possibly be stabilizing.

[table:  "Percent Distribution of the Population by Race 1950 & 1960"]

By Age Group

     From 1950 to 1960, in the City of Asheville, Metropolitan Asheville, and Western North Carolina, the proportion of the population in the young and middle age groups decreased, and the proportion of the population in the older age groups increased. The proportion of children decreased in the Region but increased in the City of Asheville and Metropolitan Asheville.  Large out-migration by young and middle age adults, coupled with a lack of out-migration by older adults, plus in-migration of retirees, and better medical care resulting in a longer life span are primarily responsible. As a result, the population of these areas is composed of decreasing proportions of productive working persons and increasing proportions of older non-productive persons.
     In light of recent migration and employment trends, it is probable that the trends of 1950 and 1960 have changed somewhat in Metropolitan Asheville and probably in the City. The reduction in out-migration of young adults no doubt has increased the proportion of both children and young adults. Possibly, this has also occurred somewhat in the Western North Carolina Region; however, outside the Upper French Broad Basin, it is doubtful that it has happened to any appreciable extent.

[table:  "National Median Income by Educational Attainment 1959"]

SOCIAL CHARACTERISTICS
INCOME, EDUCATION, & HOUSING

2

INCOME

     Income levels in both Metropolitan Asheville and Western North Carolina have traditionally been well below National levels, and in Western North Carolina below State levels.
     In 1939, per capita income in Western North Carolina, at $553, was approximately 40 percent that of the Nation and 70 percent that of the State. From 1939 to 1962, per capita income in Western North Carolina increased by almost 500 percent, as compared with approximately 450 percent for the State and approximately 325 percent for the Nation. As a result, per capita income in Western North Carolina came somewhat closer to that of the Nation, but is yet pitifully low. As of 1962, Western North Carolina's per capita income was approximately three-fourths that of the State and only slightly above one-half that of the Nation.
     In Metropolitan Asheville, income levels have been historically above those of the Region. In 1939, per capita income in Metropolitan Asheville was almost double that of the Region and approximately 30 percent above that of the State, but only three-fourths that of the Nation. Despite an excellent increase, by 1962 per capita income in Metropolitan Asheville was only one-third above that of the Region and 11 percent above that of the State, however, almost

[chart:  "Per Capita Income for Asheville SMSA, Western North Carolina Region, North Carolina and the United States 1939, 1950, 1962"]

82 percent that of the Nation.
     Unfortunately, the rapid increase in income is not completely attributable to increased wages. More and more wives are working now and family incomes have risen as a result. This, however, could prove to be an expensive way to increase income, for it may be paid for in terms of impoverishment of home life, and perhaps the next generation will have to pay the bill for the extra money gained.
     In comparison with North Carolina Metropolitan Areas, per capita income in Metropolitan Asheville is fifth, above only Metropolitan Winston-Salem, and almost $550 below Metropolitan Charlotte -- the leader. This gap is probably, to a great extent, a reflection of migration trends. In contrast to Metropolitan Asheville -- which until recently has been losing many of its best educated and most capable citizens, especially its youth, generally to the other Metropolitan Areas within the State due to the superior employment opportunities offered them -- these Metropolitan areas have attracted the very type of people who out-migrated from Metropolitan Asheville, subsequently resulting in higher income in these areas.
     Possibly one of the major problems facing Metropolitan Asheville and Western North Carolina is that of income distribution. This is a very important factor in terms of community growth and development, for those with high incomes, as a general rule, have a lower propensity to consume than do those with low or medium incomes. This is not to say that those with large incomes spend less, but rather they generally spend a smaller percentage of their income. Consequently, many of those with high incomes have a substantial portion tied up in outside interests and investments, while those with low or medium incomes tend to return almost all of their disposable income back into the local economy.
     Unfortunately, those with low incomes purchase little but the bare necessities, and it is generally those with medium incomes who have the most profound effect upon the economy by making possible the successful development of specialty activities.
     As shown by Table 8, in 1959 slightly less than 47 percent of the families in Metropolitan Asheville and only 39.4 percent in Western North Carolina had incomes ranging from $4,000 to $10,000 per year. Moreover, almost 45 percent

[table:  "Family Income Distribution, For Selected Areas 1949 & 1959"]

HOUSING

     According to the 1959 Census of Housing, the quality of housing units in Metropolitan Asheville and particularly in Western North Carolina is below the standard of the State, and the City of Asheville below urban places in the State.
    As shown by Chart 9, approximately 41 percent of the housing units in Metropolitan Asheville and 48 percent in Western North Carolina were substandard in 1959, as compared with 36.5 percent for the State. In the City of Asheville, almost 30 percent of the housing units were substandard as compared with approximately 20 percent for urban places in the State.
     In the City, Metropolitan Area, and Western North Carolina, over half of the housing units are owner-occupied, and in all three the percentage is increasing. The percentage of total dwelling units owner-occupied is largest in the Region and smallest in the City. This is as would be expected, for the more sophisticated the economy the greater will be the representation of national firms, agencies, and manufacturing plants; therefore, there will be greater mobility of the work force as people are transferred into and out of the community, subsequently the need for rental housing will be greater.
     In terms of value, both Metropolitan Asheville and the City of Asheville have a greater percentage of owner-occupied units with values in excess of $10,000 than does the State; however, only the City has a greater percentage than the State of renter-occupied units renting for $60.00 per month or more.
     In all four areas the percentage of owner-occupied units valued above $10,000 is increasing much more rapidly than those below $10,000, and in all four areas the percentage of renter-occupied

[chart:  "Substandard Housing as a Percent of Total Dwelling Units for Selected Areas 1959"]

EDUCATION

     Now, as never before, education is a prerequisite to well paying jobs and a secure adult life. The complex technological revolution engulfing modern-day American society is rapidly by-passing and rendering obsolete the unskilled and uneducated. The type of employment offered by tomorrow's business and industry will, for the most part, demand a sound academic education and generally specialized training -- academic, vocational, and technical -- beyond the high school level. No longer is education a luxury, but a dire necessity.
     What does this mean to Metropolitan Asheville? Simply this: In order to successfully compete with other areas for modern, high-quality industry, and thereby grow and prosper, the quality of the work force must be equal or superior to that of competing areas. This, in turn, is dependent upon the educational and training levels of the Metropolitan Asheville citizenry which is largely a reflection of the educational and training institutions provided its inhabitants. That Metropolitan Asheville has realized this is abundantly illustrated by the numerous projects which have been undertaken in the last several years and includes:
     1.   The establishment of Asheville-Biltmore College at a permanent location and

provision of the support which has enabled it to develop into one of the South's finest liberal arts institutions. Only recently the seventh building was completed, and others including a complex of dormitories are expected in the immediate years to come.
     2. The establishment of Asheville-Buncombe Technical Institute and extension units to prepare those who do not attend college with the skills necessary for high-quality industrial and technical jobs.
     3. Continued work by both state and local government to upgrade and improve public education. Of particular significance is the proposal to consolidate city and county schools in order to provide more uniform teaching standards, grade classification, and greater operating efficiency.

     As of 1960, the level of educational attainment in the City of Asheville was generally well above that of the Western North Carolina Region, the State, and Metropolitan Asheville, and slightly above that of urban places in North Carolina, but still generally low. Almost 54 percent of the adults 25 years of age and over in the City of Asheville have less than a high school education, and slightly less than 10 percent have a college education. In comparison, almost 60 percent in Metropolitan Asheville, almost 70 percent in Western North Carolina, and approximately 68 percent in the State have less than a high school education. In terms of college graduation, 7.6 percent of the adults in Metropolitan Asheville, 6.3 percent in the State, and only 5.5 percent in Western North Carolina have achieved this level, as compared with almost 10 percent for urban places in the State. Needless to say, there is a great deal of room for improvement.

Dropouts

     As shown by the accompanying Chart, dropouts have been and still are a constant problem in Metropolitan Asheville, Western North Carolina and the State of North Carolina. In all three areas, dropouts have been high but are generally on the decline. In Metropolitan Asheville, rates for each of the last 10 years have been lower than in the Region or the State, but yet high.
     According to the Secretary of Labor, W. Willard Wirtz, a boy or girl who enters today's labor market without a useable skill is committing "economic suicide." To illustrate, the latest Bureau of Labor statistics show that: 1) teenage unemployment, though declining during the booming economy of recent years, is three times as great as overall unemployment; 2) the average income of American families headed by a dropout in only one-half that of families headed by a college graduate; 3) dropouts are usually the first employees to be dismissed when the business cycle tapers off or

[chart:  "School Drop-Out Rates"]

     In North Carolina there has been a steady increase in the percentage of high school graduates who continue their education beyond high school. By and large, the majority attend either a junior or senior college; however, the most rapid growth has occurred in trade, business, nursing schools, etc.
     In Western North Carolina, the percentage furthering their education beyond high school increased rapidly from 1960 to 1962, and since that time has remained almost constant. This has resulted from a combination of a decline in the percentage attending college each year since 1961, coupled with an approximately identical increase in the percentage attending trade, business schools, etc., during the same period of time.
     In both the City of Asheville and Metropolitan Asheville the trends have been radically different from those of the State and Region. In the City, the percentage continuing their education and training beyond high school has been steadily declining since 1963. This has been brought about by a decline in the percentage attending both college and trade, business, nursing schools, etc. In Metropolitan Asheville, the percentage continuing education beyond high school increased each year from 1960 to 1963, declined sharply in 1964 and again increased slightly in 1965. The percentage attending college steadily increased from 1960 to 1963, however, decreased rapidly in 1964 and remained almost constant in 1965. In contrast, except for 1961, the percentage attending trade, business, and nursing schools, etc., has increased steadily each year since 1958.
     In terms of the percentage of graduates attending college, the City of Asheville has consistently been well above the Metropolitan Area, the Region, and the State; however, the gap is rapidly decreasing. In the Metropolitan Area the percentage attending college has generally been above that of the State, but for the last 2 years, it has been

Education and Training Institutions in Metropolitan Asheville and Western North Carolina

     As shown by Map 3, Western North Carolina and Metropolitan Asheville are blessed with an abundance of colleges and industrial and technical training institutions. Unfortunately, there are no universities, and only two institutions - Western Carolina College and Appalachian State Teachers College - offer any graduate work at all, and neither offers work beyond the master's degree.

[chart:  "Percent of High School Graduates Pursuing Further Education and Training for Selected Areas, 1958-1965"]

Industrial and Technical Centers and Community Colleges

     The backbone of industrial and technical education in Metropolitan Asheville and Western North Carolina is the Asheville-Buncombe Technical Institute and its extension units which are located in Cherokee, Haywood, Jackson, and McDowell Counties. In addition, Burke and Rutherford Counties have community colleges which provide, in addition to college level courses, industrial and technical education as well.
     When Asheville-Buncombe Technical Institute was opened in September of 1961, the total value including buildings and equipment was approximately $500,000. There were slightly more than 2,000 half-time and extension students, only seven trade courses were offered, and there were twelve full-time and eight part-time instructors. At the present time, including extensions, there are over 6,000 students. The value of buildings and equipment is approximately $750,000; study is offered in seven technical and nine trade fields; and, excluding extensions, there is a total

Colleges

     As of the fall of 1965, the eight colleges* -- junior and senior -- located in Western North Carolina had an enrollment of approximately 9,000 students, a faculty of approximately 600, and were valued at slightly more than 46 million dollars (including land, buildings, endowments, etc.) Unfortunately, due primarily to insufficient funds and facilities, only 56 percent of those who applied for admission to these institutions in the fall of 1965 were accepted.
     On the basis of a survey of these institutions, it is estimated that by 1980 enrollment in Western North Carolina colleges will almost double to approximately 17,600 students. In order to accommodate this increase, it is estimated that between 55 and 60 million dollars and almost 900 new faculty members will be needed. Needless to say, industry and citizens of Western North Carolina will be called upon to raise a large portion of the required capital. The extent to which they respond will, in large measure, determine the success these colleges have in meeting the future demands made upon them.
___________
*Does not include Plonk School of Creative Arts.